Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Wisdom of the collective

I know I said I would read the book and then post about it, but I have to write down my thoughts as this idea just doesn't seem like it should work.  The problem I have is that the collective works selfishly.  I guess this is why betting on ideas or predictions helps because it shifts the focus of gain from getting what you want to getting the decision right.

However, in the case of deciding on the right policy, or the right rules, or laws, I don't think selfishness can be overcome.  One specific example I think of is the price of gas.  When gas was at an all time high, near $4 a gallon, people were making a noticeable difference in their driving habits.  I would argue that the best thing for people, and the world, as a whole is to drive up the price of gas so we are forced to use less.  Can anyone argue that using less gas is bad?  I think this is something that would be hard to decide as a collective because of selfishness.  In our democracy, this would also be very hard to implement as any politician that proposes a $2 hike in gas tax would surely be replaced at the first opportunity.

Another example would be benefits given to employees.  Could employees as a whole somehow come up with a benefit system that was good for the employees and yet would not drive the company into the ground?

How could we implement the "wisdom of crowds" and still get the "right" decisions?

3 comments:

  1. It's ok for the individuals to be thinking selfishly, the aggregate total of their selfish decisions can result in the best course of action. The outliers on both sides are largely marginalized which is why the decision can be more accurate.

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  2. I don't think people being against $4 gas is an outlier. I think the aggregate would decide that $4 gas is bad.

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  3. I think the crowd DID decide that $4 is bad. But I'm sure there were outliers who drove Hummers and didn't decide that. The gas price example is more about supply-demand economics in my mind, but it's also helpful to point out that not all problems are best solved by the crowd. Take elected politicians for example. :) ok that was mostly a joke.

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